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Analysis & Implications

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Contents

Analysis: Evaluating the Evidence

Skeptics and Their Arguments

Mainstream Science and UFOs

Lie-Detector Tests and the Credibility of Witnesses

Implications

 


Analysis: Evaluating the Evidence


The Case for the Extraterrestrial Origin of Flying Saucers
Stanton T. Friedman, Nuclear Physicist/Author/Lecturer

Careful review of the vast array of relevant evidence clearly leads to the conclusion that some unidentified flying objects are intelligently controlled vehicles whose origin is outside our solar system.  All the arguments against the extraterrestrial origin seem to be based upon false reasoning, misrepresentation of evidence, neglect of relevant information, ignorance of relevant technology, or pseudo sophisticated assumptions about alien appearance, motivation, or government secrecy.
> Click here to go (PDF)


The Case for UFO Reality
The UFO Briefing Document, Don Berliner, et. al.

"If a close look is taken at the best available evidence, it is possible to deal with what is known about UFOs, and what may reasonably be assumed. The point we will make is that the evidence to support the conclusion that UFOs are unknown aircraft/spacecraft seems to be overwhelming."
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Formulation, Falsification, and some predictions of the ETH  
By Brian Zeiler 

The extraterrestrial hypothesis, or ETH, is formulated consistent with the accepted scientific framework for hypothesis induction. The null hypothesis to explain UFOs is that they are random, disparate misidentifications of atmospheric or artifical terrestrial phenomena. This is called the misidentification hypothesis. If rejected on sufficient grounds -- and due to the subjectivity we are probably facing a more Bayesian type of inference than an objective test approach -- then we accept the alternative hypothesis, which is that disk-shaped vehicles are in fact flying in our atmosphere. 
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The ETH and the Likelihood of Interstellar Travel
by Jean van Gemert 

The (un)likelihood of extraterrestrial visitation is probably one of the most debated aspects of the Extraterrestrial Hypothesis, the answer being an essential component to the validity of the ETH. After all, the assumed unlikeliness of interstellar travel has become the cornerstone of those who resist the ETH as an explanation for UFOs. So, does extraterrestrial visitation necessarily require all sorts of "unlikely" science, or is it possible to accomplish interstellar travel using conventional wisdom? 
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UFOs- Delusion or Dilemma

Four examples of allegedly close contact with UFOs are presented.  Possible physical, physiological, and psychic reactions are explored.  The question fo the validity of the data, and the evaluation of psychodynamic factors operating in fact versus fantasy, is discussed.  I tis felt that the objective details fo the reported UFO experiences are essentially real, and tneither fantasized nor dereistic.  
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Science in Default- Twenty-Two Years of Inadequate UFO Investigations
James E. MacDonald, 1969

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Skeptics and Their Arguments

"Cut through the ridicule and search for factual information in most of the skeptical commentary and one is usually left with nothing. This is not surprising. After all, how can one rationally object to a call for scientific examination of evidence?"
Bernhard Haisch, Ph.D., "Be Skeptical of the Skeptics"

"Skeptics, who flatly deny the existence of any unexplained phenomenon in the name of 'rationalism,' are among the primary contributors to the rejection of science by the public. People are not stupid and they know very well when they have seen something out of the ordinary. When a so-called expert tells them the object must have been the moon or a mirage, he is really teaching the public that science is impotent or unwilling to pursue the study of the unknown." (Vallee, J., Confrontations, New York: Ballantine Books, 1990.)

Dr. Jacques Vallee, astrophysicist, computer scientist and world renowned researcher and author on UFOs and paranormal phenomena. He worked closely with Dr. J. Allen Hynek. Commenting on the need for science "to search beyond the superficial appearances of reality"


The Logical Trickery of the UFO Skeptic  
By Brian Zeiler 

Skeptics in the scientific community resist the evidence for extraterrestrial visitation because of the implications it raises and because of the questions it begs. But should the integrity of the determination rely on the implications of a positive classification? Or should the classification of true or false be assessed in isolation of the implications? Which is worse -- a false positive, meaning ruling in favor of the UFO as a unique phenomenon when in fact it does not exist, or a false negative, meaning ruling against it and missing out on its true existence? 
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Prosaic Explanations The Failure of UFO Skepticism
by Dr. Bruce Maccabee

"Although only a few sightings have been discussed here, they are important because they remain unexplained after analysis and even after "prosaic explanations" have been offered by the skeptics. The failure of UFO skepticism, from the scientific point of view, has been to allow such explanations to be tacitly accepted by the scientific community. If UFOs were "ordinary science" the proposed explanations would have been rigorously analyzed...and probably rejected... rather than simply accepted. Scientific ufology needs skeptics, but skeptics who are capable of recognizing when a sighting simply cannot be explained by any "prosaic explanation."
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The Science of UFOs Fact vs. Skepticism
by Richard H. Hall

"Among the deeply embedded misconceptions of scientists are: 1. UFOs are nothing but vague fleeting lights seen at night, 2. No trained or experienced observers have reported truly puzzling UFOs, 3. UFOs are prosaic objects or phenomena that are converted into spaceships by "believers," 4. A religious-like "will to believe" in salvation from the outside drives the entire UFO phenomenon, and 5. Nothing of substance has been reported that science could investigate even if it wanted to."
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The UFO Challenge
by Stanton T. Friedman, Nuclear Physicist

"Debunkers seem to employ four major rules: A. What the public doesn't know, we certainly won't tell them. The largest official USAF UFO study isn't even mentioned in 12 anti-UFO books, though all the book authors were aware of it.  B. Don't bother me with the facts, my mind is made up  C. If one can't attack the data, attack the people. It is easier.  D. Do one's research by proclamation rather than investigation.It is much easier, and nobody will know the difference anyway."
> Click here to go


Be Skeptical of the Skeptics
Bernhard Haisch, Ph.D., Editor-in-Chief, Journal of Scientific Exploration

The most frequent "skeptical" argument, of course, is that there is "not a shred of evidence" and that UFO claims were long ago carefully and open-mindedly examined and rejected in the Condon Report. What the "skeptics" either never bothered to read or choose to ignore is that there is substantial evidence in the roughly 1000-page body of that report itself and Condon's dismissive summary bears hardly any relation to what the rest of the report says. Condon's aim was to put an end to serious UFO investigation, and that is how he slanted his summary, never mind what was in the actual report. Indeed the rest of the Condon report contains substantial "shreds of evidence." An analysis of the Condon Report by Sturrock was published in Vol. 1. of JSE and will be posted on the web shortly.  Cut through the ridicule and search for factual information in most of the skeptical commentary and one is usually left with nothing. This is not surprising. After all, how can one rationally object to a call for scientific examination of evidence?
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On Pseudo-Skepticism
by Marcello Truzzi

Over the years, I have decried the misuse of the term "skeptic" when used to refer to all critics of anomaly claims. Alas, the label has been thus misapplied by both proponents and critics of the paranormal. Sometimes users of the term have distinguished between so-called "soft" versus "hard" skeptics, and I in part revived the term "zetetic" because of the term's misuse. But I now think the problems created go beyond mere terminology and matters need to be set right. Since "skepticism" properly refers to doubt rather than denial--nonbelief rather than belief--critics who take the negative rather than an agnostic position but still call themselves "skeptics" are actually pseudo-skeptics and have, I believed, gained a false advantage by usurping that label.
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Zen... and the Art of Debunkery
by Daniel Drasin

What is "debunkery?" As intended here, it is the attempt to "debunk" (invalidate) new information and insight by substituting scient"istic" propaganda for scient"ific" method.  To throw this kind of pseudoscientific behavior into bold--if somewhat comic--relief, I have assembled below a useful "how-to" guide for aspiring debunkers, with a special section devoted to debunking the UFO--perhaps the most aggressively debunked subject in the whole of modern history. As will be obvious to the reader, I have carried a few of these debunking strategies over the threshold of absurdity for the sake of making a point. As for the rest, their inherently fallacious reasoning, twisted logic and sheer goofiness will sound frustratingly familiar to those who have dared explore beneath the ocean of denial and attempted in good faith to report back about what they found there.
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Symptoms of Pathological Skepticism
by William J. Beaty

Many members of the mainstream scientific community react with extreme hostility when presented with certain claims. This can be seen in their emotional responses to current controversies such as UFO abductions, Cold Fusion, cryptozoology, and numerous others. The scientists react not with pragmatism and a wish to get to the bottom of things, but instead with the same tactics religious groups use to suppress heretics: hostile emotional attacks, circular reasoning, dehumanizing of the 'enemy', extreme close-mindedness, underhanded debating tactics, justifications, and all manner of name-calling and character assassination. Two can play at that game! Therefore, I call their behavior "Pathological Skepticism," a term based upon skeptics' assertion that various unacceptable ideas are "Pathological Science." Below is a list of the symptoms of pathological skepticism I have encountered, and examples of the irrational reasoning they tend to produce.
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Mainstream Science and UFOs

"In their public statements (but not necessarily in their private statements), scientists express a generally negative attitude towards the UFO problem, and it is interesting to try to understand this attitude. Most scientists have never had the occasion to confront evidence concerning the UFO phenomenon. To a scientist, the main source of hard information (other than his own experiments' observations) is provided by the scientific journals. With rare exceptions, scientific journals do not publish reports of UFO observations. The decision not to publish is made by the editor acting on the advice of reviewers. This process is self-reinforcing: the apparent lack of data confirms the view that there is nothing to the UFO phenomenon, and this view works against the presentation of relevant data." 

Dr. Peter A. Sturrock, Professor of Space Science and Astrophysics and Deputy Director of the Center for Space Sciences and Astrophysics at Stanford University; Director of the Skylab Workshop on Solar Flares in 1977. (Sturrock, Peter A., "An Analysis of the Condon Report on the Colorado UFO Project," Journal of Scientific Exploration, Vol. 1, No. 1, 1987.)


UFOs and Mainstream Science
Bernhard Haisch, Ph.D.

The Journal of Scientific Exploration (JSE), which I edit, is a peer-reviewed research journal in which scholarly investigations on phenomena not part of the currently accepted scientific paradigms may be published. UFO's fall in this category, or more to the point, UFO's certainly fall outside the realm of mainstream science. Is there any possibility of changing this situation? The purpose of this essay is to present some ideas along these lines to the community of UFO investigators and supporters.
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Still in Default
By Bruce S. Maccabee, Ph.D. 

For nearly 40 [more than 50] years, the science establishment has ignored the UFO problem, relegating it to the domain of “true believers and mental imcompetents” (a.k.a. "kooks and nuts" [according to the former editor of Applied Optics magazine]). Scientists have participated in a "self-cover-up" by refusing to look at the credible and well reported data.  Furthermore, some of those few scientists who have studied UFO data have published explanations which are unconvincing or just plain wrong and have "gotten away with it" because most of the rest of the scientific community has not cared enough to analyze these explanations.  The general rejection of the scientific validity of  UFO sightings has made it difficult to publish analyses of good sightings [in refereed journals of establishment science].  Examples are presented of the scientific-self-cover-up involving erroneous explanations, refusal to look at the data, and rejection of papers for publication.  How long will this situation last?  Forty [fifty] years is long [too long]. 
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Lie-Detector Tests and the Credibility of Witnesses

Lie Detection in UFO Cases 
By Geoff Price

Examines the applicability and usefulness of two different techniques and their relation to witness investigation. - "Grappling with fraud and deception is par for the course in the context of UFO claims, and as a result, "lie detector" tests are frequently demanded of UFO claimants, and their results, positive or negative, brandished as evidence. Some cases in particular have put lie detection in the spotlight, notably the Travis Walton abduction case of 1975, as well as the more recent (and divisive) case of Ed Walters and 
his Gulf Breeze photographs."
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The Travis Walton Abduction Case
 
By Geoff Price

Takes an exhaustive look at the case itself and the relevant issue of polygrah reliability. - "A total of thirteen polygraph examinations would ultimately be administered in conjunction with the case, a prodigious one as far as the use of polygraph evidence is concerned. A total of nine individuals were tested, including the seven primary participants as well as Walton's mother and brother. Eleven of the tests were passed, one (the original Dalis test) was inconclusive, and one -- the first test of the primary actor Walton -- was failed. In evaluating this polygraph evidence, it is important to back up and consider the validity of lie detection tests in general. Do they work at all?"
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Implications

One Universe, One People
Dr. Steven M. Greer

"One of the greatest tasks humanity has faced throughout history is the establishment of peace and unity among differing and diverse peoples....As great as the challenges to unity have been and continue to be for humans, how much greater might this be for the emerging and embryonic relationship between humans and extraterrestrial civilizations....The challenges of establishing unity among the peoples of the universe is a grand extension of the challenge of establishing unity and peace among the people of the earth."
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The CSETI Comprehensive Assessment of the UFO/ETI Phenomenon
Dr. Steven M. Greer

A comprehensive analysis of the UFO phenomenon, as well as original research and experiences of members of the CSETI CE-5 Initiative Working Group, has enabled us to make some specific conclusions about UFOs, Extraterrestrial Intelligence and their motives. The summation of this analysis, which follows, is intended to assist both groups and individuals in their efforts to understand this complex subject. We have recorded only those conclusions for which we have a high level of certainty.
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Extra-Terrestrial Contact - The Evidence and Implications
Dr. Steven M. Greer

Extraterrestrials and the New Cosmology

Crossing Point